Seasonal stock has a hard deadline. A shopper looks for Christmas gifts in late November and early December, so the goods have to be on shop shelves well before that. Work back from the event to the day your order must leave the supplier.
The chain, step by step
| Step | Typical time | Used here |
|---|---|---|
| On the shop shelf before the event | 2 to 4 weeks | 21 days |
| From your warehouse onto the shop shelf: dispatch 3 to 5 working days, delivery to the shop 2 to 5 days, onto the shelf 7 to 14 days | about 12 to 26 days | 26 days |
| Sea freight from Asia | 10 to 12 weeks | 84 days |
| Air freight | 3 to 4 weeks | 28 days |
The 26 days after arrival use the slow end of each range. If your customers restock faster, you gain a few days.
arrive by = on shelf by − 26 days
order by sea = arrive by − 84 days
order by air = arrive by − 28 days
Order-by dates for the coming season
| Event | Order by sea | Order by air | Arrive by | On shelf by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halloween · 31 Oct 2026 | 22 Jun 2026 | 17 Aug 2026 | 14 Sep | 10 Oct |
| Sinterklaas · 5 Dec 2026 | 27 Jul 2026 | 21 Sep 2026 | 19 Oct | 14 Nov |
| Christmas · 25 Dec 2026 | 16 Aug 2026 | 11 Oct 2026 | 8 Nov | 4 Dec |
| New Year's Eve · 31 Dec 2026 | 22 Aug 2026 | 17 Oct 2026 | 14 Nov | 10 Dec |
| Valentine's Day · 14 Feb 2027 | 6 Oct 2026 | 1 Dec 2026 | 29 Dec | 24 Jan |
| Easter · 28 Mar 2027 | 17 Nov 2026 | 12 Jan 2027 | 9 Feb | 7 Mar |
When to switch to air
Air freight costs several times more per kilo than sea freight. It makes sense for items with a high margin per kilo, or when the alternative is empty shelves in the one month the item sells. For a low-value bulky item, a late sea shipment sold at full price in January may still beat an air shipment.
How much to order for a season
Christmas items sell in a short window and are not restocked after the event. A twelve-month average spreads that window across the year and gives a number that is far too low. Start from last season's sales for the same item or a similar one, then adjust for this year's customer orders and any change in your range.
Doing this for every item
POplanner tags items as possibly seasonal from words in the name or category, in English, German and Dutch: "Christmas", "Weihnacht", "kerst", "Sinterklaas" and more. Its Seasons view shows each event's sea date, switches to the air date when sea is too late, and marks the event overdue when both have passed. All timings above can be changed to match your suppliers.
Read how to calculate a reorder point for items that sell all year.